POLLING LATEST – TRUMP UP BY TWO – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:  The formal presidential campaign starts today, and Hillary Clinton cannot be amused by a new CNN/ORC poll out this morning.  From The Hill: 

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump tops a new national poll that shows a tight race two months before the election.

Trump leads Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 2 points among likely voters, 45 to 43 percent, well within the margin of error in the CNN/ORC poll released Tuesday morning.

Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson takes 7 percent while Green Party nominee Jill Stein has 2 percent.

Clinton had an 8-point lead in the same poll in early August.

The new poll of 1,001 adults, conducted between Sept. 1-4, has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Clinton leads Trump by 4 points, 46.1 to 42.1 percent, in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls.

COMMENT:  This is another poll that confirms a clear trend toward Trump.  There is no guarantee this trend will continue.  Trump must capitalize on his momentum by avoiding the outbursts and off-message arguments that severely damaged his campaign only a month ago.

Polling will intensify, and it's important that we look at the election state by state.  National polls are interesting, but we will be voting by state on election day.  Only electoral votes will actually count.

September 6,  2016